Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
