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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd